If the new poll indicates a valid trend, Meng could be in trouble.
[Updated x3] A press release from the Halloran campaign highlights the findings of a new poll that suggests a dead heat in the race for NY6.
According to pollsters Mclaughin and Associates, a poll taken on October 10th & 11th, 2012 indicates Halloran is in a neck and neck battle against Meng with Halloran receiving 33% to Meng’s 36%, which is well within the margin of error.
Press release: Council Member Dan Halloran is in a statistical dead heat with Assembly Member Grace Meng, according to the latest poll. Despite spending well over a million dollars (including more than $122,000 of her own funds) and outspending Halloran by more than 10 to 1, she has failed to develop a significant lead.
The poll indicates that Halloran holds a 5% lead among voters who have heard of both candidates. Halloran leads by an astounding 28% among voters who have a firm opinion of both candidates. The poll concludes that “voters who know both Halloran and Meng like Halloran better.”
Mitt Romney is leading President Obama in the district, according to the poll. Romney receives 46% to Obama’s 43%, with 11% undecided. Poll respondents gave President Obama a 61% negative job rating.
Pollster McLaughlin & Associates point out that,
“Voters of this district have a history of electing Republicans, including Senator Frank Padavan, Senator Serf Maltese, Rudy Giuliani and Dan Halloran himself. Further, portions of this district also voted for Congressman Bob Turner.”
Halloran spokesman Kevin Ryan said,
“The poll confirms that Dan Halloran is on his way to winning this race. Dan won over Democrats in his Council race and he is doing it again in the heart of Queens. Voters know that he will fight to create jobs, help small businesses and reduce gas prices.”
“Dan Halloran is ranked the #1 New York City Councilman for constituent services and voters know it. You can’t buy a record like that, even if you’re a multi-millionaire like Grace Meng.”
Update Oct. 22 10:48 AM : In a statement, Meng spox Austin Finan said Dan Halloran is making poll numbers up.
Leave it to Dan Halloran to release a tailor-made poll. This “poll” is nothing more than a desperate attempt on behalf of the Halloran campaign to raise money from its far right, radical Tea Party base of support. Once again, Dan Halloran just makes things up and expects no one to question him. I think we would all like to see the methodology of this survey so that we may see what is obvious: this poll does not represent the diversity or true sensibilities of middle-class voters in Queens.
Please note that Grace for New York’s internal polling shows the Assemblywoman with a sizeable, 51%-22% lead with 27% undecided.
Update Oct. 22 12:20 PM: Halloran Spox, Kevin Ryan responds to Finan’s comment,
I do not believe anyone would categorize Rudy Giuliani, who endorsed Dan Halloran, as a far-right radical member of the Tea Party. I have not seen a summary of any poll from the Meng campaign, but our summary is available for anyone to see.
Update Oct. 22 12:30 PM: Meng spox, Austin Finan casts more doubt on the methodology of the Halloran-released poll and requests specifics to prove validity,
400 voters from throughout the 6th Congressional were polled, demographically representative amongst all political parties and blanks, and at no time – testing any messages in any scenario – did Dan Halloran receive more than 24% of anything looking like support of any kind from anywhere. Once the Halloran camp releases what percentage of respondents in their bogus poll speak what languages – and from what neighborhoods and amongst what registrants – we’ll gladly release additional info.