Dec 12 2012

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Vallone’s combined base has already grown too large for Avella to win in northeast

In 2009 an acrimonious primary race for City Council ripped through northeast Queens like a tornado. The results give a hint where the votes will go for Borough President. To summarize a long campaign, the vote was sliced 6 ways. Paul Vallone came in third to Jerry Iannece and Kevin Kim won (later defeated by Republican Dan Halloran). But now with Iannece out of the picture, his 2,139 votes will certainly go to Paul for City Council, and they’ll go to Peter for Borough President too ensuring victory in northeast Queens.

In the past four years, Paul’s voter base has grown and been nurtured through his visibility and service to the community. In a Primary Election it’s the party loyalists that show up to cast their ballot, however in this case Paul has his own base as well as the loyalty of the party’s prime voters. The sheer number will stop any chance of Peter’s rivals winning in northeast Queens. Granted we are not talking about the average voter. These are primary voters whom will wake up on Election Day knowing who they are going to vote for and it just so happens that this time most of them will cast a ballot for ‘Vallone’ straight down the line.

In his last election Avella enjoyed the support of labor which poured in from across the state to help win in a geographic area roughly 1/8th the size of Queens. They won’t be there this time around. Avella’s main problem will be that he can’t raise enough money and that will stop most attempts to overcome the momentum of Peter’s campaign. If this was a popularity contest, Tony Avella would win in northeast Queens, after all he’s an excellent representative with name recognition. But this is not a popularity contest, this is a primary election and if you don’t have the cash to deliver a diehard base to the polls or hire enough staff, you might as well call it quits.

My second point is that longstanding resentment against Tony Avella in northeast Queens for his character assassination of former Senator Frank Padavan has left a sour note with many voters that want to see Avella out of office or possibly tarred and feathered (yes it’s that bad). It should be noted that the fickle, yet coveted Whitestone bloc will go to Paul, and thus Peter for these reasons. Clearview Gardens will also lean Vallone, so will Beechhurst, Malba, and College Point due in part to the advocacy of their respective community leaders.

Regardless of whom County may endorse, votes still win elections.


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